Stakeholder

Last weekend I followed such luminaries as Nobel Laureate, John Hume, former Presbyterian Moderator, Rev. John Dunlop, the author, Tim Pat Coogan, banker, Sir George Quigley and politician and Fianna Fail matriarch, Mary O’Rourke as the Guest Speaker at the Annual Tom Dunn Society Commemorative Dinner in Rostrevor.

The dinner marks a night hosted by the United Irishmen at which Wolfe Tone was in attendance. The driver of this cultural tour-de-force is Siubhan O’Dubhain and her incredibly talented family and coterie of friends.

The night is a mix of song, recitation, great food, good company and a keynote speech all conducted in period costume.

The event allowed me as the speaker to address the issue of political re-alignment in Ireland. Political re-alignment is a subject which makes politicians shudder. It’s the subject which gives them sleepless nights. The British coalition has surprised everyone as the Cameron/ Clegg affair seems made in heaven, although Vince Cable continually looks miserable in office.

No one should underestimate the significance of this coalition’s ability to change British politics for some time to come. Cameron and Clegg look and sound very comfortable with each other and that will annoy a few Tories and Liberals on their respective backbenches. The bitchy comments about ‘Brokeback Coalition’ by David Davis is probably just the start of nastier things to come.

All of which brings me back to domestic politics. Political re-alignment is almost inevitable. The collapse of the Irish banking system has sent shock waves through the political system and if polls are to be believed for Fianna Fail the changes will be transformative. While one door certainly opens for them in the North with the slow-build of the organisation, in reality this is more of a side-show than a headline act.

The Labour Party’s capitalisation of Fianna Fail woes demonstrates how closely these two parties compete for the same votes with Labour usually playing second fiddle. Irish Labour has traditionally had to be subservient to the big two civil war parties.  Labour’s problem is that it has always had to wait. Plus the fact that its membership spans right to left. It could do with a ‘New Labour’ type project to propel it into the lead partner in any Irish Government. Without such a prospect it will remain a coalition bridesmaid rather than a bride.

This far from an election only a complete fool would write off Fianna Fail. The big problem with Irish politics on both sides of the border is that it has run out of steam. There is a need for proper ideological debate; even if politicians appear to have no appetite for it. The binds that keep people in respective political folds are loosening at a time when the differences between opposing political parties are dissolving. Little wonder the Irish electorate seem so fickle and why they are not flocking to the Fine Gael stable.

There are no big ideas driving the political future.

The much talked-about Shared Future stuff in the North is not a big idea –it’s actually a process of normalisation.

Lord Bannside apparently has rubbished the idea of unionist unity. Not surprising really, because if the DUP and UUP merged, his lordship would have no legacy.  Yet some form of unionist unity will emerge over the next few years, partly by an irrational fear of nationalist dominance and partly with the more divisive unionist personalities retired or moved on; their differences dissipate.

Re-alignment is almost certain in the centre ground of Northern politics. Sinn Fein has taken the SDLP clothes and designs. They have undermined that party from the left but have failed to make any significant inroads in the South where they are viewed as economic liabilities. Ironically they may end up forming a coalition of the left in the Republic where they may find common cause with their comrades, formerly of Sinn Fein, the Workers Party now in Irish Labour. Who says what goes around does not come around?

The SDLP may come under pressure from a resurgent Alliance Party for centre ground votes in places where the SDLP would hope to pick up seats. A popular MP and the ‘Brucie Bonus’ of a Ministerial Skoda may help Alliance perform a bit of a comeback.

2016 will present an opportunity for redefining modern Ireland and re-alignments may fall out of that process but the new arrangements will not be driven by political parties but by the needs of the electorate.