Stakeholder

Gordon Brown says he will keep Alastair Darling as Chancellor in his next Government. David Cameron says the NHS is safe in the hands of the Tories. Nick Clegg says the Liberals will change the face of British politics. Peter Robinson says he is humble. Reg Empey wishes Lady Hermon well and once again Gerry Adams says he was not in the IRA. In case you have n’t noticed there is to be an election in the next six weeks and just about anything will be said if it gets you to a polling station.

While the polls suggest that the lead between the Tories and Labour is shrinking don’t bet on the result being as close as predicted. All the talk about a hung parliament plays well into the Tory Campaign about the need for change. Despite the vagaries of the British electoral system it’s likely that David Cameron will win comfortably. The Liberals will be squeezed and the Labour Party will be fragmented and divisive- whatever the result.

It’s not so much that the British public love the Tories. The public can see that the party of privilege and patronage is just that but they can also see a Labour party enthralled to Union bosses and their 1970’s mentality. Trade Unions have their merits but all too often militant Trade Union Leaders whose lifestyles mirror that of senior bankers lose not just the plot but the argument. There is no better way to secure a Tory victory in six weeks time than for public sector and transport unions to encourage strike action. Though in fairness, the avarice of several former Labour Ministers ably demonstrate the point that Labour is a party not just in free-fall but in need of total moral reform.

The extent of voter disillusionment is a moot point. The fact that people want change may actually motivate them out to affect that change.

In Northern Ireland things may be somewhat different.

There is a real chance to finally solidify the stop-start nature of the peace process. Both Sinn Fein and the DUP are on an irrevocable path and neither dissident republicans nor dinosaur unionists can reverse the progress that either party has made.

It’s bizarre that mainstream unionist parties that have set their stalls firmly against double- jobbing and it’s the two nationalist parties which have decided to retain the practice against wide-spread public anger.

While most nationalists are unlikely to be bothered by double-jobbing per se and given that the competition between the two nationalist parties in most constituencies is likely to occur between ‘double-jobbing’ candidates; both Sinn Fein and the SDLP would do well to remember that most public anger was directed at the gravy-train of expenses that accompanied the roles of MLA and MP and not the actual salaries which are restricted under legislation members holding dual mandates. To the public taking no salary or a third of a salary is irrelevant when thousands may be claimed on expenses.

With Unionists more frequent attendees at Westminster deciding to opt out of dual mandates- the decision of the SDLP and Sinn Fein to continue the practice of multi-jobbing could come back to haunt them within twelve months at the next Assembly elections.

Despite its early promise, it is difficult to see the UUP/Tory link-up making any gains. The DUP will come under some pressure particularly in South Antrim, North Antrim and Strangford but given its remarkable recent PR recovery; they may just hold on. Nationalists may even root for Baby Doc over the snarling TUV Leader.

Sinn Fein will seek an endorsement for their stewardship of the peace process but may secretly wish the popular Deputy First Minister rather than their helicopter travelling author-come- President, Mr Adams was in charge.

As the chances of the nakedly sectarian attempts to have unionist unity candidates in Fermanagh/South Tyrone and South Belfast recedes- one expects no change in the representation of the industrious incumbents in either seat.

While electoral pacts are anti- democratic and base –if the so called unionist ‘partners’ in the power-sharing government  opt for electoral pacts in either constituency and given the new political dispensation, both Sinn Fein and the SDLP would be failing the wider nationalist community by not responding in kind. It would be a pity if such a scenario arose but Sinn Fein makes much of the need to maximise nationalist representation but historically have done little to enable it. Unionists looking to adopt outdated practices may yet rue nationalists mimicking their antics.