Stakeholder

So we go again. On Tuesday Northern Ireland will stand at yet another political crossroads. The choices are as clear now as they were to Terence O’ Neill some forty two years ago. Then O’ Neill was facing down what he described as a form of ‘Protestant Sinn Fein’ led by Paisley. Now Paisley’s ‘Protestant Sinn Fein’ i.e. the DUP is in bed with real ‘Mc Coy’/ Sinn Fein jointly promoting -O’ Neill’s ‘happy and respected province in good standing’ internationally.

The transfer of policing and justice powers to Northern Ireland is being vaunted by Westminster and Dublin as a coming of age for our politicians to reach out and take responsibility for something serious. That our politicians have evaded making any difficult decisions since being in government seems to have gone over the head of the Tory- turn coat in charge of the Imperial Court at the NIO. There is more than a sense of irony that it is the Ulster Unionist Party, the respected tribe of political compromisers of O’Neill, Faulkner and Trimble that is now holding out against the deal intended to seal devolved Government in Northern Ireland.

The smug Alliance Party with their snouts sniffing at the rim of the trough are now ready to ditch their self proclaimed ‘principled opposition’ for the crumbs from the DUP/Sinn Fein table. The SDLP are carping from the sidelines about their loss of entitlement.

But the question remains: what happens next?

The Ulster Unionists rightly smell the blood of a wounded DUP. Their hard-balling tactic is unnerving the DUP country and western set. They correctly point out that this deal was cobbled together by the DUP and Sinn Fein who both have the necessary cross-community votes to push through the Assembly the transfer of policing and justice powers. The DUP is panicky at the thought of not having the political cover of the Ulster Unionists.

If the DUP has a short memory, the Ulster Unionists do not. Pure and simple they want political revenge for the Trimble era when their party did all the heavy lifting to bring about power-sharing and the DUP stood outside like ‘hurlers in the ditch’. The Ulster Unionists owe no favours to Sinn Fein either as the latter strung out their obligations on decommissioning until it destroyed David Trimble’s credibility and led to a reversal of fortune for the Unionist Party.

So it’s a bit rich of either the DUP or Sinn Fein to ask Sir Reg to prostrate his party for their benefit under the guise of the so called greater good.

Of course, if the process is about political maturity then Sinn Fein and the DUP should force through the transfer of policing and justice powers by the weight of their own votes and the support of their political toadies. One suspects that the DUP don’t believe that they can do that and get way with it politically.

So does Peter Robinson walk in on Tuesday and say that while he supports the transfer of powers now; that without the support of the Ulster Unionists the necessary ‘community confidence’ on the Unionist side does not exist to allow this to happen? If he does, this the Assembly should be immediately dissolved and there should be a joint Westminster and Assembly election in May.

Both Sinn Fein and the DUP can go to the polls seeking a fresh mandate as all those contesting elections will know that the restoration of devolution will include an acceptance of the transfer of policing and justice.

At this juncture the Ulster Unionists hard-balling may back fire. Their fragile alliance with the Conservatives would almost certainly dissipate with competing interests from their respective grassroots and candidates for the Assembly and Westminster elections. The spectre of Sinn Fein holding the First Minister’s position may be enough to keep doubting DUP voters within the fold.

If coherent and uncomplicated in message, the SDLP may actually benefit from a joint poll as the normal frictions amongst Assembly candidates may encourage a high-turn turnout of activists which in turn will bolster the chances of retaining their Westminster seats. Sinn Fein is the only party likely to gain from a fresh mandate and in Martin Mc Guinness they have a popular and charismatic leader more capable than Adams at attracting new voters.

Fresh elections may cause a political train crash for the centre ground but it just might revive them too. This is Russian roulette politics and the winners will take all.