Stakeholder

So the people have spoken. The European Elections are over as are the local government elections. There is a palpable sense of relief in Stormont, Leinster House and even in Number 10. Though in the case of Number 10, the relief may be somewhat more short-lived. The turnout in Northern Ireland was disappointing; it seems as if our previous high turnouts which were fuelled by opposition to violence and naked sectarianism have gone off the boil. People are bored; turned off and let down by politics.

 

Even Barbara De Bruin’s impressive vote on the nationalist side is nearly seventy thousand short of John Hume’s heyday vote. The performance of the TUV’s Jim Allister was nothing short of amazing; if not depressing. The DUP is still reeling from the ramifications of the fallout. The SDLP vote was static yet worryingly was the lowest vote in that party’s history. The signs that the Party can hold what it has will be somewhat reassuring to the grassroots.

 

The Ulster Unionist’s lacklustre candidate got an electoral bounce from the Cameron effect and provides Sir Reg with much appreciated political cover until the Westminster Elections.

 

The DUP has more reason than most to be worried. The unionist electorate was obviously turned off by the notion of political dynasties, double-jobbing, employing family members and that was even before the embarrassing expenses revelations. Allister and the Ulster Unionists kept hammering that message and it obviously got through. The DUP has been quick to react- though voting against the Government last week may not have been their wisest move –especially when they still have a shopping list and the Prime Minister is known to be an unforgiving man.

 

Now the DUP faces an electoral challenge on two fronts, one on the right from Allister and his unreconstructed unionism and one from the left from Empey and his one nation conservatism. Perversely they seem to be electorally dovetailing to undermine the DUP –despite their substantial ideological differences. Though one suspects, that Allister would be comfortable sitting on the far right of Tory Party.  

Initial reactions from DUP suggest that unlike David Trimble they are going into sell mode by trying to convince the unionist electorate about the benefits of devolved government. In the immediate aftermath of the election; the DUP are now more dependent on Sinn Fein than ever before. The trick is going to be achieving a balancing act between cordial relations with Sinn Fein as Government partners and scaremongering the unionist electorate with the spectre of a Sinn Fein First Minister. The strategy is admirable but risky because the next election is to Westminster and not to the Assembly.

 

The Westminster election could come as soon as this autumn though Brown is likely to want to prolong the agony in the hope that more positive signals about the economy may impact favourably with the British electorate. It is likely to be a vain hope but the recent elections if translated to a Westminster scenario would have only given Cameron and his Tories a majority of thirty five- not enough to subdue his wayward Euro- sceptics.  Cameron needs a Blair-style landslide.

 

The TUV will struggle to provide credible candidates across the North. Allister will need to tread carefully but it is likely that he has three potential seats within his grasp- North Antrim- South Antrim and East Antrim. Potentially, East Derry too. He is likely to be content with taking the Paisley homeland of North Antrim. He can damage the DUP safe in the knowledge that none of the seats targeted will end up in the hands of a nationalist. The Ulster Unionists and Conservatives, if they can find credible candidates are the most likely beneficiaries. It’s still a tall order but after the European elections all things are possible and make no doubt about it the presence of Cameron, Osborne and the affable Boris in Northern Ireland between now and next year will give star factor bounce to Sir Reg and his team. Of course, Sir Reg still has to find a resolution to the errant Lady Sylvia and that won’t be easy. Ironically, here is another lady not set for turning.

 

This is all new territory for the DUP but with the spirited and popular Ms Long becoming Lord Mayor of Belfast; there will be a degree of unease in East Belfast as well as North Antrim. Nonetheless, the TUV could go the way of Bob Mc Cartney et al but then again they may not.