Stakeholder

Sitting stranded in London with azure skies and a dazzling spring sun overhead, I am somewhat disappointed not to see any of this volcanic ash which has brought the airline industry to its knees. It just goes to prove that try as we may, man will never tame nature. However, the same cannot be said of our politicians as their ‘minders’ work hard to tame their masters baser instincts. The so called big leadership debate was so staged managed it was underwhelming but the surprise performance came from the man most people are least likely to know- Liberal Democrat, Leader, Nick Clegg.

The big ‘beastie’- Gordon Brown had clearly more substance to him than either Clegg or Cameron and the latter must almost certainly be disappointed that his smug personae was pretty much exposed. Labour is staging a late comeback but the underlying sentiment is still for change. While the debate format was staid it did provide an opportunity for the public to at least get up close and professional rather than personal. Clegg’s energetic performance was a winner.

Most election broadcasts on our side of the pond were comprised of the usual tired and lack-lustre nonsense. Candidates wearing ill fitted suits, standing in unnatural poses, looked even more uncomfortable when trying to make sense of scripts which could have been written by your average ten year old. When watching election videos you know no matter how much politicians claim to be ‘just like one of us’ – election broadcasts ram home the point how much they are not. These broadcasts are allegedly the windows into the souls of politicians but it’s not a pleasant picture. Their claims are exaggerated to the extent that they are about as believable as Jack and the Beanstalk. The strangest thing is that they don’t see it that way. The prism through which politicians see themselves is all hallowed and golden; the public see something completely different.

Yet this election will offer interesting choices; especially for some in the wider nationalist community. One suspects that gardening Catholics in North Down will express solidarity with the Lady of the Irish Shires – the much put upon Labour loving, Lady Hermon especially following her decision to do a solo run. In North Antrim moderate nationalists may decide to hold their noses and give Baby Doc their ‘x’ in order to face-down the back to the future candidate- Jim Allister.

Meanwhile in South Antrim some may be tempted to take the opportunity to oust Willie Mc Crea by lending their electoral support for the sporting Ulster Unionist Leader who is staking all on the gamble of his life. With or without a pact in Fermanagh/South Tyrone it’s more than likely that nationalists of all hues will respond in kind to the ‘unionist unity’ plan by swallowing their differences and coalescing around Michelle Gildernew. Whether that’s enough to save her; is entirely another matter.

As for the battle within unionism it seems so fragmented that the net effect may mean little changes but the scope for change within unionism remains the more interesting element of this election. Margaret Ritchie was right to spurn the opportunistic and clumsy advances of Gerry Adams for an electoral pact as clearly the Sinn Fein leader has a shorter memory than most nationalists and evidently all former members of the IRA.

The new SDLP leader will be expected to hold South Down albeit with a much reduced margin. She has the fringe benefit of being a party leader and more importantly she has the advantage of being less accident prone than her Sinn Fein counter-part; though it’s unwise to electorally under-estimate Sinn Fein. Middle-class prejudice against Sinn Fein is almost certainly on the wane and being against Sinn Fein without positively standing for something else is a precarious electoral ledge which the SDLP need to avoid.

With Derry in the bag, the SDLP battle-ground will be South Belfast. Although in the last election the constituency saved the party’s blushes with a surprise win; Alasdair McDonnell has proved a popular MP with a strong constituency track record. Despite the ‘in-built’ unionist majority, the SDLP really needs to hold onto South Belfast as a mainstream political party without parliamentary representation in an increasingly nationalist city is an electoral Achilles heel for long term viability.

Reg Empey, Peter Robinson and Margaret Ritchie have a lot to lose in this election and their political fortunes will blossom or whither on voter engagement and believability. An apathetic electorate is their greatest enemy.