Stakeholder

The first hung parliament in the UK in 36 years opened up the possibility of Northern Ireland MPs having a major say in the formation of the next Government. At the time of writing that scenario is receding as the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats seem to be on the cusp of agreeing either a formal coalition or at the least acquiescence of the smaller party for David Cameron to form a minority Government. In that event the potential ‘kingmaker’ role of our 13 voting MPs looks to have dissipated. However given the election mathematics, whoever enters 10 Downing Street will be more intrinsically instable from 2010 onwards than at any time since the early 1990s. That does mean that at some stage over the coming parliamentary term the votes of the DUP, SDLP Alliance and Sylvia Hermon may assume greater significance. What will local politicians seek to achieve with their extended influence?

When the question of a hung parliament and what price might be extracted for support first arose, most party leaders talked in vague terms about the need to ‘protect the NI block grant’. While that is an understandable desire it does belie a lack of imagination when it comes to taking Northern Ireland from recession to sustained recovery. It is important both to the protection of front line service and that as much public spending as possible is protected in the face of inevitable cuts. Given the over reliance on the public sector for local employment, such a  ring fencing of the block grant would go some way towards protecting jobs as well. But didn’t the parties also have economic policies designed to bolster the private sector? Why were those initiatives not even mentioned as bargaining chips in any kingmaker role?

The two local leaders’ debates in the run up to polling day featured the economy as a high priority. One thing all the local parties had in common was a commitment to seek a reduction in corporation tax for the region. Sir Reg Empey went further than the others – who had made noises about harmonisation with the Republic of Ireland – when he called for an even lower level of corporate tax in the North. The UCUNF partnership also made reference to a special enterprise zone status, although all of that was overshadowed by David Cameron’s factually correct but politically suicidal observation that Northern Ireland was too heavily reliant on the public sector. Peter Robinson has more or less made the same point a few days earlier and although Reg battled gamely to open a mature debate on the issue, the damage was done.

As pointed out by Mark Carruthers, the economic section of the Sinn Fein manifesto makes it into the document at page 48, following on from commitments to supporting Cuba. Gerry Adams made a big play throughout the campaign of seeking the devolution of ‘fiscal powers’ although it was never made clear what Sinn Fein would like to do with tax varying powers if they were transferred. You might assume that a politician would seek fiscal control in order to re-order the economy and introduce more imaginative ways to provide public services. But then again SF have had control over water charges since May 2007 and have run a mile from the issue. It is safe to assume that they would not be looking to increase the tax intake.

The SDLP made a big play of their commitment to create 42,000 jobs, a very specific figure, and their candidates consistently said this election was about jobs. The jobs figure is based on the ‘green new deal,’ the harmonisation of corporation tax and a range of other fiscal incentives. While corporation tax is an issue beyond the control of the NI Assembly, much of the party’s commitments are enforceable from the Executive, if other parties agreed.

The DUP gave us not one but two economic sections in their manifesto, one entitled jobs (that’s the one with the call for reduced….you guessed it, corporation tax) and a further section on how to create a better business environment. Again, tax aside, many of the issues therein can be adequately provided for at Stormont and since the DUP hold the Ministries of DETI, DFP and OFMDFM, maybe we can look forward to initiatives on for example, enhancing the retail sector and improving literacy levels? None of those take a hardnosed negotiation in a hung parliament; those levers are already in Belfast.

The phrase ‘4 main parties’ is now redundant following the elevation of the popular Lord Mayor, Naomi Long into the hot seat in east Belfast. Their Alliance manifesto makes the familiar call on corporation tax and the Green New Deal, and seeks to protect the NI block grant. Maybe Naomi and fellow female newcomer to the Commons, Margaret Ritchie, should sit together on a few London flights, it looks like, and economically at least they have a lot in common.

The truth is that economically there is not much to separate the political parties in Northern Ireland. The big goals of either enterprise zone status of a reduced corporation tax are in the hands of the House of Commons and our representatives may at some stage in the life of the next parliament have a chance to call with one co-joined voice for such dramatic economic interventions. IN the meantime, there is much work to be getting on with at the Assembly, and with the election campaign over and done with, attention should switch to Stormont.